000
AXNT20 KNHC 221155
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...   
                                  
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO 
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N35W TO ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW NEAR 09N46W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 18W-40W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 
                                             
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN 
WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS NNE ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE 
SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N95W TO 19N96W. THE 
COMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE 
ANTICYCLONE...CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND A DEEP 
MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
N OF 25N AND W OF 91W...WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S 
OF 24N AND W OF 95W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N92W 
TO 18N92W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DRY AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS 
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY W OF 95W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO EXTENDS 
SE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 75W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N67W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO W CUBA 
SUPPORTS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N 
OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA... 
AND HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH JUST ENTERED THE E CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDING FROM 15N61W TO 11N62W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG 
THIS TROUGH AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING 
W WITH CONVECTION AFFECTING THE E CARIBBEAN.
                                        
...HISPANIOLA...  
                                              
A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE ISLAND IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG 
THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
                                             
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 20N74W 
TO A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N65W TO 31N56W. SCATTERED LIGHT 
TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 200 NM OF EITHER SIDE 
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED 
BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 
35N37W. A 1009 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 30N23W EXTENDS A SURFACE 
TROUGH TO 26N24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 
27N BETWEEN 21W-25W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW 
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N WITH CONVECTION 
AFFECTING THE W-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE LOW 
OVER THE NE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SW WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

ERA