000 AXNT20 KNHC 160603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES WILL STRENGTHEN NE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT THROUGH TUE IN THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAINLY S OF 21N W OF 95W. FOR MORE MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02. A DEEP 1000 MB LOW PRES AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 30N22W...APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE AT STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ONGOING WITHIN 420 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES...AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED BY METEO FRANCE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH TODAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE ENE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N26W TO 10N29W...MOVING W AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP MOISTURE S OF 13N. THE WAVE AXIS IS IN PHASE WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE MID LATITUDES...EXTENDING ACROSS THE NE ATLC. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N45W TO 12N47W...MOVING W AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE WAVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND AN UPPER TROUGH FARTHER TO THE NW. THIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N81W TO A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 11N83W. SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. CONVERGENCE OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N16W TO 13N23W TO 08N37W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 11N45W TO 11N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF...WEST OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. COPIOUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA NEAR PORT CHARLOTTE TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N93W. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED FROM OFF THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AS WELL AS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS ENHANCING A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACORSS THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A DISTINCT MOISTURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...SHOWING UP WELL ON TPW MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH TODAY AS THE AIRMASSES MODIFY. REINFORCING HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SW GULF ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS BY EARLY SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS COVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W...INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. BUILDING HIGH PRES NORHT OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE TRADE WIND FLOW PRIMARILY OFF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD BEEN IMPACTING HAITI THIS PAST EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. ADDITIONAL MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING 70W AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NE US COAST SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N68W AND EXTENDS TO 29N72W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N57W TO 10N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 29N47W TO 25N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLC...ENTERING OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N18W TO 24N24W TO 23N38W...SUPPORTED BY A 1000 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N25W. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN BETWEEN 30W AND THE COLD FRONT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN