000 AXNT20 KNHC 151753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N26W TO 16N24W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND COINCIDE WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT BETWEEN 23W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 24W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N46W TO 19N43W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 41W-48W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 39W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N80W TO 19N79W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK AND SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 77W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 76W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N20W TO 07N36W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N36W TO 12N44W TO 10N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 04W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 17W-22W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 46W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND FAR WESTERN NORTH ATLC. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N82W WESTWARD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY PRECIPITATION-FREE AT THIS TIME...MOST MOISTURE... CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 24N E OF 93W IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 95W. NORTH OF THE FRONT...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AS A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS LOUISIANA. OVERALL...MODERATE E-NE WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE FRIDAY AS A REINFORCING RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...AS RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE VERACRUZ COAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT...TWO SPECIFIC SURFACE FEATURES ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ONGOING CONVECTION. FIRST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 79W/80W AND HAS LARGELY BEEN CONVECTION FREE THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...MOVING BENEATH THE ENVELOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT THIS TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 76W-84W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N76W TO 21N82W. THE SECOND SURFACE FEATURE IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO SOUTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 14N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 83W-90W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND CONTINUE BRINGING PLENTIFUL PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AMERICA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY. FINALLY...E OF 75W... RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW INFLUENCES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND AS N-NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROMOTE OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND FAR WESTERN NORTH ATLC WATERS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N71W SW TO 29N78W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 21N BETWEEN 63W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N42W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING...ONE NEAR 27N46W AND THE OTHER NEAR 28N59W. FINALLY... ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N22W THAT SUPPORTS A PARTIALLY OCCLUDED 1000 MB LOW NEAR 32N25W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N18W TO 25N22W TO 22N30W TO 23N38W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 22W-27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN