000 AXNT20 KNHC 112335 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE 18Z ANALYSIS MAP...WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC FROM 14N30W TO 08N31W. 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 25W- 35W AND TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOISTURE SURGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 28W-33W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N45W TO 07N52W. THIS POSITION WAS ESTIMATED BASED OFF A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH IN MODEL STREAMLINES BETWEEN 45W-54W AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. DEEP MOISTURE PREVAILS S OF 14N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N-18N BETWEEN 42W-53W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N80W TO 10N82W. WATER VAPOR AND TPW IMAGERY DEPICT A MOIST AIRMASS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE MAINLY S OF 15N. A 700 MB TROUGH IS INDICATED IN MODEL STREAMLINES BETWEEN 78W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 79W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 09N30W. ASIDE OF THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N AND E OF 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE S CAROLINA COAST WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE E-CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N93W TO 27N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N93W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE EXTENDING FROM S FL TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING FROM THE W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-82W. TO THE E...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 70W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ON MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE S CAROLINA COAST SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N75W TO 28N80W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N72W TO 24N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 71W. TO THE E...A DIFFLUENT FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 64W-72W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N52W AND A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N35W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE E OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH AS THEY CONTINUE MOVING E OVER THE W ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA