000 AXNT20 KNHC 081114 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... JOAQUIN HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LAST ADVISORY THAT WAS WRITTEN ABOUT JOAQUIN WAS TRANSMITTED AT 08/0300 UTC. THE CENTER THAT NOW IS NEAR 43N35W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS RELATED TO THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES 32N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 41N TO 51N BETWEEN 15W AND 32W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A TILTED 700 MB TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MODEL STREAMLINES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE PRECEDING THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N22W 10N28W 06N34W 03N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. A LOW AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N61W 17N62W 14N63W 10N63W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A FAIRLY SHARP 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 59W AND 65W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 09N31W TO 08N40W TO 06N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N22W 10N28W 06N34W 03N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE 28W/29W TROPICAL WAVE ALSO. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N92W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COASTS BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK. THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE IS THE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N78W...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W AND 22N92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 21N61W 17N62W 14N63W 10N63W A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 26N73W 22N72W...CUTTING RIGHT THROUGH HAITI...TO 16N74W...INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 76W AND 85W IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 68W WESTWARD... IN AN AREA OF LARGELY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA TO 83W/84W AT THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.24 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N61W 17N62W 14N63W 10N63W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH CUTS THROUGH HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH HAITI FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST TIME. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BECOME CUT OFF...AND IT WILL STAY IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 2-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO HISPANIOLA. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND 24 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAHAMAS-TO- SOUTHEASTERN CUBA RIDGE...WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INVERTED TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 26N73W 22N72W...CUTTING RIGHT THROUGH HAITI...TO 16N74W...INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 31N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N70W TO 27N78W...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W AND 22N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 270 NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 28N63W 26N70W 25N80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 26N54W 22N53W AND 18N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N16W...THROUGH 32N21W TO 26N29W...THROUGH A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N49W...TO 26N69W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N86W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT