000 AXNT20 KNHC 071745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 41.0N 45.6W AT 07/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 470 NM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING ENE AT 30 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 40N TO 47N BETWEEN 35W AND 48W. THE STORM CONTINUES MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM 14N23W TO 06N27W OVER THE EASTERN ATLC MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. A TILTED 700 MB TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MODEL STREAMLINES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE PRECEDING THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 28W. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 11N48W TO 04N48W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 44W AND 54W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N55W TO 09N56W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 53W AND 63W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND 65W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 10N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N27W TO 05N45W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DRIFTING S OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE UPPER TROUGHS RESIDE W AND E OF THE GULF BASIN. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. HOWEVER...TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF. THE NORTHERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW N ATLC TO FL NEAR 26N81W TO 26N86W. THE SOUTHERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N83W TO 23N89W. MODERATE E TO NE WINDS COVER THE GULF N OF THE TROUGHS AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. VARIABLE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE GULF. THIS LOW AND WHAT REMAINS OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE SE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE SURGE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. THE INTERACTION OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 65W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N86W TO 16N88W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 83W. GENTLE TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE INCREASING E TO W ACROSS THE ISLAND WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THIS COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. MORE ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN US COAST SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N75W...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N76W THROUGH THE LOW TO THE FL PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO 27N71W. THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 61W AND 79W. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CO-LOCATED OVER THIS HIGH PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. FARTHER EAST...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N30W SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN IS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO