000 AXNT20 KNHC 040519 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.0N 68.9W AT 04/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 335 NM SW OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 63W-72W. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N30W TO 07N28W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 28W-31W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N37W TO A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 08N35W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 31W-41W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 16N22W...THEN RESUMES NEAR A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 08N35W TO 10N47W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-16N AND E OF 21W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 45W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. TO THE NE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER E ALABAMA EXTENDS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISRUPTION OF TRADE WIND FLOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM NEAR 25N83W TO 20N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TO THE E...A DIFFLUENT FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 16N AND E OF 69W AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE S TO SW WINDS ARE S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TO THE NE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF NORMAL TRADE WIND FLOW AS THE CIRCULATION OF JOAQUIN MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF JOAQUIN IS BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE W OF THE ISLAND WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SUPPORTING CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE JOAQUIN DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLANTIC...W OF JOAQUIN...FROM A 1000 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N81W TO 28N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. E OF JOAQUIN...A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N53W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE LOW CENTER. A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 19N49W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDING FROM 23N40W TO 31N21W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED MAINLY N OF 26N. TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND A SURFACE LOW ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CIRCULATION OF JOAQUIN WILL EXIT OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION WITH DECREASING INFLUENCES ON THE SW ATLANTIC. A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA