000 AXNT20 KNHC 201130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 20/0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 43.6W OR ABOUT 1130 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 37W-43W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 10N31W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS AXIS AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDS E REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. TO THE E...A SHARP UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE EASTERN US COAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND REACHING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY THIS SAME TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TO NEAR 25N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THIS TROUGH AFFECTING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GULF WATERS S OF 23N. ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 29N91W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE E. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY W OF 80W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N75W. THIS LOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF 15N BETWEEN 74W-81W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE W WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SW OF THE ISLAND WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US COAST SUPPORTS A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 32N74W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENDING NEAR 25N82W. THIS SURFACE FEATURES COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 70W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N58W. THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED E OF THIS LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 42W-53W. IN THE PROXIMITY IF THIS CONVECTION...A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N52W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 28N52W. T.S. IDA CONTINUES ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA