000 AXNT20 KNHC 140605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC NEAR 10N36W ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 16N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 31W AND 42W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TRPCL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER TODAY. ITS AXIS IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 20W. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB...WHICH SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 05N TO 10N E 25W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N35W TO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N36W...MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THESE FEATURES ARE DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...PLEASE REFER TO THIS SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 320 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR 56W...MOVING W AT 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT IMAGERY AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 76W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION HINDER CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE COAST OF AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 11N27W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N36W TO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N47W. FOR CONVECTION INFORMATION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SPECIAL FEATURES SECTIONS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN US SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N81W TO 25N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 24N91W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 23N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 85W AND 95W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTED BY THE LOW AT THE TAIL OF THE FRONT. SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT N-NE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NW GULF WHERE A MAXIMUM OF 20 KT WINDS IS OBSERVED. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START DISSIPATING MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH AXIS NEAR 75W. EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SW OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EXTEND S TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA OFFSHORE WATERS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LOW AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND COASTAL WATERS. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-83W. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W...N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W AND S OF 17N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE NEXT TRPCL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES MONDAY NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SW OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EXTEND S TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER- LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN US SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N75W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 27N79W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 30N73W TO ANDROS ISLAND. BOTH FEATURES SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW N ATLC W OF 70W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR