000 AXNT20 KNHC 061104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED AT 06/0900 UTC IS NEAR 24.9N 43.2W. FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH...OR 355 DEGREES... 09 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 22N TO 25.5N BETWEEN 42W AND 44.5W...AND FROM 26.5N TO 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE AT 06/0900 UTC IS NEAR 12.4N 28.5W. GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...OR 270 DEGREES...11 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W...FROM PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THESE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N68W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. IT IS BEING BROKEN UP BY TROPICAL STORM GRACE AND THE 37W/38W TROPICAL WAVE. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 07N TO 11N FROM 19W EASTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. ...DISCUSSION... FROM SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N82W SOUTH CAROLINA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TAMPA FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD...THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 91W EASTWARD...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N60W TO 28N70W TO 25N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 96W EASTWARD. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 23N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N67W...27N50W...BEYOND 32N41W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N AND EL SALVADOR TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM EL SALVADOR TO 17N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG 23N91W 17N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W...INLAND IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND ITS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT HISPANIOLA AND THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N89W IN BELIZE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N AND EL SALVADOR TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM GUATEMALA NEAR 16N TO 17N ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS FROM 11N TO LAND BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND 90W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO PANAMA NEAR 09N81W...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM LAKE MARACAIBO...TO 08N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W...TO 11N84W IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THIS IS ALSO ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.69 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N68W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND. CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE NORTHWARD. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA IN A COL. TWO INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED...AND TROPICAL STORM GRACE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N30W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W...AWAY FROM T.D. FRED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT