000 AXNT20 KNHC 200605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY AT 20/0300 UTC IS NEAR 12.1N 42.7W...OR 1100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 295 DEGREES...09 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N22W...TO THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 09N25W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. THE METEOSAT EXPERIMENTAL ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST THAT ARE SURROUNDING THE FEATURE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. 700 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS THE WAVE AXIS WHILE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY INDICATES A MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N59W TO 14N62W TO 08N63W IN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD. THE 700 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES CURVATURE ALOFT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WHILE 850 MB VORTICITY SHOWS A MAXIMUM ACROSS NE VENEZUELA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W TO 14N23W 12N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N47W TO 10N54W...TO THE COAST BORDER AREA OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 08N AND 13N3N CITIES OF AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA INTO. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO THE SW THROUGH 26N90W TO SE MEXICO OVER THE CHIVELA PASS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG RETURN SE FLOW ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF...INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEFORE PUSHING TO THE W INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT ACROSS THE NE HALF...AND 4-6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 74W WESTWARD. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 75W AND 84W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONSISTS OF A MIXTURE OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 64W EASTWARD. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET...EXCEPT UP TO 13 FEET NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... OBSERVATIONS...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...IN LA ROMANA...IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. A TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE U.S.A...AND IT WILL PASS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE 500 MB FORECAST SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE 700 MB FORECAST SHOWS THAT MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 56W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND 56W...THANKS TO TWO INDIVICUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS THAT ARE ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N IN THAT AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT