000 AXNT20 KNHC 141001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 36W ...MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW THE WAVE IS WITHIN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT...COINCIDING WITH A SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST AIRMASS AS INDICATED BY ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR 58W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB ACCORDING TO CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ENGULF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS NEAR 84W EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB ACCORDING TO CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N81W ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 175 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AFRICA NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 08N25W TO 08N34W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N37W AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N45W TO 08N52W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... THE SE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SW TO A BASE OVER THE NE BASIN. THIS TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 27N85W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W-SW TO 24N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 25N TO 29N E OF 87W. OVER THE SW GULF...A 1016 MB HIGH IS NEAR 23N93W. VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KT ARE BASIN-WIDE. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY EVENING LEAVING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NE TO THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING N INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS OCCURRING MAINLY ALONG THE COASTLINES FROM NICARAGUA TO NORTHERN PANAMA. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED W OF JAMAICA IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N E OF 80W. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OBSERVED OVER THE E-NE CARIBBEAN. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...HISPANIOLA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED W OF JAMAICA IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER A PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH MODERATE SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SW TO A BASE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N79W SW TO JACKSONVILLE...THEN W ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N77W SW TO 24N81W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 23N21W...HOWEVER LACKING CONVECTION. FOR TROPICAL WAVES SEE SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR