000 AXNT20 KNHC 230539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N31W TO 7N34W MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N53W TO 6N51W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS TRAILING A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 51W- 56W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND INLAND OVER VENEZUELA TO NEAR 9N69W MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE E CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF LINE GRENADA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 14N67W TO 17N71W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 87W S OF 17N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N20W TO 9N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N27W 6N32W 5N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 18W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TO ACROSS LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. WEDGE BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES IS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 25N82W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS TO NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. THE UPPER FEATURES ARE ADVECTING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE THE FAR W GULF WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM VERACRUZ TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND OVER THE SE GULF S OF 24N E OF 86W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE W GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA OVER THE N GULF. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT S INTO THE E CENTRAL GULF FRI. THE N PORTION OF THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR N BELIZE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W AND EXTENDS N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS E CUBA NEAR CABO CRUZ WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA COVERS MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 79W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE ACTIVITY IN THE E CARIBBEAN/LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF WEEK BEHIND THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN AND OUT OF THE ATLC BASIN TODAY. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WED REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY THROUGH LATE THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR CABO CRUZ OVER THE N/CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N68W. THE UPPER LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N69W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS INTERACTING WITH THIS WAVE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 62W-70W. A BROAD E/W SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 27N50W EXTENDING ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 25N/26N AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE N PORTION OF THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW ATLC TONIGHT AND TUE REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW