000 AXNT20 KNHC 122342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 14N27W TO 05N28W. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGH IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AND ITS AXIS IS LOCATED JUST W OF A 700 MB WIND MAXIMUM REGION THAT EXTENDS E OF 29W. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL MOIST ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 25W-30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 13N37W TO 04N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. DESPITE THE FACT THAT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO MOVING AROUND THIS WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG 08N BETWEEN 35W-39W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 16N60W TO 07N61W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE CONFINED S OF 10N. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 10N AFFECTING PORTIONS OF GUYANA AND NE VENEZUELA. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 14N73W TO 08N73W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS FEATURE. DESPITE THIS...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 09N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 09N26W THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N30W TO 07N35W THEN RESUMES AGAIN NEAR 05N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05N52W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W...ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N85W WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM 26N94W TO 19N95W SUPPORTS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF N 0F 22N BETWEEN 89W-94W. FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AFFECTING THE E GULF MAINLY E OF 83W. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC REACHES THE GULF SUPPORTING A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WITH CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS MAINLY W OF 74W. AN UPPER- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N82W PREVAILS OVER THE S- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. THIS PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 28N52W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N60W IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N66W TO 30N58W. TO THE E...A WEAK 1020 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THIS LOW FROM 30N41W TO 26N38W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA