000 AXNT20 KNHC 062340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 500 NM W OF GUINEA EXTENDING FROM 12N24W TO 05N26W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST AROUND IT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 09N40W TO 03N42W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO SURROUNDED BY SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N58W TO 03N55W MOVING W AT 20 KT. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES BETWEEN 48W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN 51W-59W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO SOUTH AMERICA FROM 15N70W TO 08N73W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER NORTH COLOMBIA AND NORTH VENEZUELA S 0F 11N BETWEEN 70W-76W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 08N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N20W TO 06N25W...THEN RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N26W TO 05N40W...THEN ONCE AGAIN RESUMING W OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 03N44W TO 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF THE PORTION OF THE ITCZ LOCATED OVER N BRAZIL FROM 02N-06N AND W OF 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AXIS ALONG 84W. THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND W CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N95W. WITH THIS...A GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE EXTENDS S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN W OF 77W AFFECTING THE ISLANDS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA ALSO. THE INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY IN CUBA REPORTED 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DEPICTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER W NICARAGUA. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO DEPICTED ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 77W REMAINS CONVECTION FREE AS A MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DRIFT E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND...WHICH WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT E APPROACHING HAITI WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. TO THE W OF THIS AXIS...DIFFLUENT FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC W OF 57W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 37N69W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TH31N68W TO 24N79W. A BROAD 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N41W EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE E GULF TO DRIFT E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA