000
AXNT20 KNHC 200532
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
                                        
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 8N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
TO 4N23W TO 5N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 11W-22W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 23W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                       

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
27N86W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N88W TO 16N91W. 20 
KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE W GULF HAS 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 98W-102W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER N FLORIDA FROM 
29N-31N BETWEEN 81W-84W. THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE 
GOES IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS PRESENTLY 
VOID OF IFR FOG OR STRATUS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. A SMALL 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N85W. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY 
OVER THE NE GULF. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL 
TEXAS WITH CONVECTION REMAINING INLAND. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-20 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG 
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S COAST OF 
CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE LOCATED OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA 
RICA...AND S NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA 
...AND THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SW TO W 
FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...
                                               
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORM AGAIN WED ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N73W. A 
1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N56W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 31N54W TO 27N60W TO 27N67W. A 
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 26N61W TO 21N63W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE 
FRONT FROM 24N-34N BETWEEN 47W-56W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 41N22W WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE E ATLANTIC N 
OF 20N E OF 45W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N55W ENHANCING 
THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH 
TO MOVE E AT 15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA