000 AXNT20 KNHC 170523 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 06N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N35W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 12W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC REGION EXTENDS ITS AXIS NE ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTICED ACROSS FLORIDA STRAITS REGION AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN AND FAIR WEATHER. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS WERE NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE FIRST ONE IS W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 22N90W TO 19N91W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS FEATURE. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTEND ACROSS THE COAST OF W FLORIDA FROM 27N82W TO 26N82W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY E OF 83W. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 91W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FOG OVER THE NW GULF TO DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING HOURS. A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL MOVE E EXTENDING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF STATES ENHANCING CONVECTION THAT COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE US AND PUSH S REACHING THE NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTICED ACROSS FLORIDA STRAITS REGION AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS W OF 78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO THE REGION. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY W ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-78W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AFFECTING THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE EVERY NIGHT AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT DEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH COVERS THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W CENTERED AT ABOUT 350 NM E OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND EXTENDING ITS AXIS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N47W AND EXTENDS TO 24N56W. FROM THIS POINT THE FRONT BECOMES WEAK AND STATIONARY EXTENDING TO 23N68W. ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-49W. A BROAD 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DRIFT S. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION AND WEAKENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA