000
AXNT20 KNHC 150527 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 
04N20W TO 03N23W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N36W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG A BREAK IN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 
07N38W TO 03N38W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 04N39W AND EXTENDS TO 
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 31W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 90W OVER THE 
CENTRAL GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
25N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
NORTHEASTERN GULF ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING DAYTIME 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE FLORIDA. 10 TO 15 KT E TO 
SE WINDS COVER THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AN UPPER TROUGH 
OVER TEXAS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD...SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS 
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME 
CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA TODAY MAY MOVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS 
OF THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA 
ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING STORMS THAT DEVELOPED 
OVER LANDMASSES DURING THE DAYTIME. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 
1005 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA HAS SPREAD OVER THE EXTREME SW 
CARIBBEAN S OF 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                              

LINGERING CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED ACROSS 
HAITI THIS EVENING. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. 
EXPECT THIS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM PATTERN TO REPEAT AGAIN 
SATURDAY. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS 
OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N60W TO 27N70W TO NORTH FL NEAR 
29N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 
58W AND 61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N59W TO 21N62W. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W TO 58W. 
A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N21W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL 
EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WITH CONVECTION. THE 
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT REACHES FL WILL 
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN 
POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FL TO THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO