000 AXNT20 KNHC 130543 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THEREAFTER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS DUE TO THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA DEEPENING DURING THE NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 05N32W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS EAST OF 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 27N TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MOVING WESTWARD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. VARIABLE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE FARTHER INLAND. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES THROUGH TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION ENHANCED BY THE NEARBY UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FROM FLORIDA AND CUBA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE ISLAND WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...ONE CENTERED BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE OTHER NEAR 27N68W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 63W AND 80W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N53W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WITH CONVECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY ATLC WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO