000 AXNT20 KNHC 291757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 03N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N13W TO 02N16W TO 03N32W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 21W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA WITH THE PARENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED WEST WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SW TO A BASE OVER SW TEXAS AND NW MEXICO. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA FOCUSED ON A PRIMARY 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N84W. A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION NEAR 29N81W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER S-SW TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. A SECONDARY 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SE GULF NEAR 26N84W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED S-SW TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W. WHILE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION FEEDS NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GULF...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 79W-85W. TO THE SE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 87W-94W. OTHERWISE... SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AS A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. BY EARLY THURSDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NORTHERLIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 16N77W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY E OF 80W. W OF 80W...ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...ASIDE FROM INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT IS FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY E OF 75W DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY THURSDAY...STALL...AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC NEAR 41N58W THAT SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. THE PRIMARY FRONT FARTHEST EAST ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W SW TO 26N65W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY W-NW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. THIS STATIONARY FRONT FEEDS INTO A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N55W W-SW TO 29N68W. WHILE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 36W-66W...MOST OF THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 24N-32N W OF 66W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WEST- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY N OF 27N IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N15W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN