000 AXNT20 KNHC 291039 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N16W 3N27W 2N35W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER THE SW AFRICA BETWEEN 5W- 8W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 11W-18W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS TENNESSEE AND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE IS A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG TO 27N88W 23N91W TO 19N94W. A WARM FRONT FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1005 LOW E TO 29N84W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC N OF TAMPA BAY TO VERO BEACH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W TO 25N87W GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N E OF 85W TO OVER S FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 90W. THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUE TO SPREAD SMOKE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL TO SE GULF. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT BEFORE PASSING SE OF THE AREA. RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE W THU WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS TO 70W THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT N OF 16N W OF 80W WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING IN. A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND SPREADING E INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 19N W OF 86W. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE SPREADING DENSE TO MEDIUM SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH LIGHT SMOKE N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS THU AND STALL THERE BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILING. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SMALL AND SHORT LIVED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N46W ALONG 28N55W TO 27N62W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 26N71W THEN JUST N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR VERO BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO THE FRONT W OF 75W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S AND E OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE FRONT TO 32N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1025 MB HIGH BETWEEN MADIERA AND AZORES ISLANDS AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N25W ALONG 23N37W TO 19N69W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO W ATLC LATE TODAY. THE NEW COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N77W TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT THEN FROM 32N63W ALONG 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW