000 AXNT20 KNHC 241747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 06W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE GULF WATERS NEAR 29N83W TO 28N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. WHILE THE COLD FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS AFTERNOON...S-SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 90W...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND EASTERN TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX REGION. OTHERWISE...SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE SE GULF TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE SUNDAY PROVIDING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY MONDAY AND QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY LATE MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE GULF COAST WITH A SECONDARY FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST EARLY TUESDAY. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W WITH A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW REMAINS VERY DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WHILE AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON THE LATEST ASCAT PASS FROM 24/1414 UTC WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-77W. IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT STRONGER TRADES ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DUE TO MORE LOCALIZED EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 20N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 80W PROVIDING FOR VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN DRY AIR ALOFT. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 20N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 80W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND NEAR 44N67W WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF 35N64W. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...THEY SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W TO 31N68W THAT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO THE NW INTO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N74W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILS TO THE SW FROM THIS LOW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL ENERGY IS E OF 70W WHICH IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE EASTERNMOST COLD FRONT AND BETWEEN 30N-32N BETWEEN 67W-72W. IN ADDITION...A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 29N76W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER PARENT TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IS IN THE VICINITY OF 30N58W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N54W TO 26N60W TO 25N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 58W...AND FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 45W-56W. AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR N OF 32N WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 35N42W WITH THE NEWLY DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE AREA. FINALLY...A PAIR OF MERGING 1022 MB HIGHS INFLUENCE THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 25N30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN