000 AXNT20 KNHC 241035 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N15W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 1W-4W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 9W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS THEN N-NW TO OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR TALLAHASSEE AND INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N THEN INLAND AGAIN OVER SE LOUISIANA. HEAVY SHOWERS/ SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND ARE SPREADING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH FOG INTO THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N W OF 94W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL OVER THE NE GULF TODAY. A WEAK ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND ARE NO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN DOMINICA TO SAINT LUCIA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT MORNING. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND S HAITI S OF 19N W OF 71W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC DIPS S OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THEN INLAND OVER SE GEORGIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND FRONT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 66W-76W AND N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N39W 31N43W TO 30N46W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N52W 27N59W TO 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 25N72W TO 25N75W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN SW ALONG 21N27W TO 18N40W. THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N17W ALONG 28N22W TO 25N31W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 23N29W AND 27N34W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY SAT AND REMAIN N OF 23N REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BY SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW