000
AXNT20 KNHC 231736
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES TO 01N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN SPLITS THE ITCZ AND 
EXTENDS FROM 04N27W TO 01S27W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES S OF THE 
EQUATOR TO THE N COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER 
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...     

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AND CENTRAL 
FL AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR 27N83W TO 29N90W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT 
COVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE 
NORTHERN GULF. HOWEVER...WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL 
BE GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...A CONVECTION FREE SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 23N92W TO 19N93W. OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND 
EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY IN A MOIST AIRMASS. 
                              
CARIBBEAN SEA...

GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INHIBITING 
ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT 
COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...WITH LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 
JAMAICA AND CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                    
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL PASS ACROSS THE 
ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ISLAND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

LOW PRESSURE OUTSIDE OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF 
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N58W TO 26N68W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 27N80W. A 
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N58W TO 27N66W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 47W AND 
56W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN US COAST IS PRODUCING 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
25N TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND THE FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS 
OF 1021 MB AND 1022 MB ARE LOCATED NEAR 26N38W AND 24N28W... 
RESPECTIVELY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT LIES BETWEEN THESE HIGH 
CENTERS AND EXTENDS ONTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N20W TO 
23N39W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST NORTH 
OF OUR OFFSHORE WATERS OFF NORTH FL...TO AROUND 60W. THE 
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER FL BUT WILL REMAIN IN TACT 
E OF 75W. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THESE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARIES THROUGH FRIDAY. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

LATTO