000 AXNT20 KNHC 152352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 42W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 28N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 21N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW TO COVER THE GULF WITH MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO INCLUDE FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO 28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 40W-60W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-40W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA