000 AXNT20 KNHC 241044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 01W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING ONLY A VERY NARROW STREAM OF MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA NEAR 32N72W SW TO 24N84W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W TO 20N96W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS...AND ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 93W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N94W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH S-SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W WITH PRIMARILY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-93W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE TUESDAY. GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N80W IS INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACING RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N82W. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING... HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST THAT SUPPORTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA W-SW TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N70W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT FROM 30N68W TO 25N81W. WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT ITSELF EXHIBITS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...A LARGE PORTION OF THE PREVAILING PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 20N TO A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N82W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN