000 AXNT20 KNHC 121736 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE HIGH WINDS ARE BEING CAUSED BY THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1007 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 29N...IN COMBINATION WITH THE TYPICAL TOPOGRAPHICAL WIND ENHANCEMENTS NORTH OF COLOMBIA. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 3N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 0N25W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2S BETWEEN 28W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS NEAR 28N94W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N91W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO LOUISIANA AT 31N90W TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30N81W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N91W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE WARM AIR SECTOR FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 85W-91W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE COLD AIR SECTOR IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 18N-29N BETWEEN 94W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N99W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO N LOUISIANA NEAR 32N92W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N90W...WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA MOSTLY N OF 15N AND E OF 84W. IN ADDITION SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N70W TO 31N79W TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 29N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N51W TO 25N55W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N27W. ON NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N40W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE NE QUADRANT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N51W TO 27N70W TO 30N80W...WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA