000 AXNT20 KNHC 242355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AND WILL PULSE AGAIN THU NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR WITH A DEVELOPING GALE IN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA AND CANARIAS. NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE AREA OF MADIERA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARING WILL GO INTO EFFECT WED EVENING FOR THE AREA OF THE W ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE FROM 31N80W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W ALONG 5N13W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N21W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 12W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC AND IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND FAR N GULF. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR CEDAR KEY ALONG 26N87W 25N92W TO 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N AND W OF THE FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER TONIGHT THEN WILL LIFT NW AS A WARM FRONT WED MORNING AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT TO THE E- SE AS A COLD FRONT THE REMAINDER OF WED THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SE GULF THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALSO COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT SE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE EASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER THE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD THU AND FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N63W TO 30N67W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 29N71W THEN CONTINUES NW AS A WARM FRONT TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 32N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 70W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA THAT WILL SPREAD S TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TONIGHT. THE W ATLC 1012 MB LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC TONIGHT THEN WILL REACH FROM 32N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE TUE NIGHT AND FROM 32N62W TO 27N77W WED AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL STALL THEN DISSIPATE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS N FLORIDA AND OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WED NIGHT. GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS INTO THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N74W TO S FLORIDA BY THU EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW