000 AXNT20 KNHC 221803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL PULSE BACK ABOVE GALE FORCE MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N09W TO 02N17W TO 01N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N22W AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 16W...FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N W OF 44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AND PROVIDES SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE SW N ATLC INTO THE SE GULF...MOIST AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE BASIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALOFT...A BROAD RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE BASIN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW GULF. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NW GULF COAST SUPPORTS BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES N OF 25N AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN THE SAME REGION W OF 93W...COINCIDING WITH GOES-13 IFR MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG PROBABILITIES. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ELSEWHERE. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN BASIN...INCREASING 25 TO 30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT FOR MOST OF THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... A PATCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OFF THE WESTERN ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HAITI AND ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N55W SW TO 26N59W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. WITH NOT TOO MUCH SUPPORT ALOFT...THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 50W. A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 36N34W ANCHORS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER ATLC BASIN WEST AND EAST OF THE FRONT. A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR