000 AXNT20 KNHC 191131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNINGS FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 30N W OF 75W BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO 22N77W. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 1200 UTC N OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO 22N77W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE BY 0000 UTC FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W STARTING AT 0600 UTC SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 05N19W TO WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02S43W AT THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-04N BETWEEN 13W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 03S AND E OF 5W TO THE W AFRICAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF BEHIND A STRONG FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS EXTENDS ACROSS N FL NEAR 29N83W TO LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT COVER THE GULF E OF 91W. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE SW GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT IS OVER THE NW GULF NEARER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVER THE SE US ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US...THE EASTERN GULF...FL...AND THE W ATLC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM SE OF THE FRONT. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT. VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 5 KT ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT. 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...JAMAICA...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE TO E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HONDURAS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH OR SHEAR LINE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING IN MOIST TRADE WIND FLOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY AS THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US...THE EASTERN GULF...FL...AND THE W ATLC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 32N67W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT...AND WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING E OF THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 170 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE SE COAST OF THE US AND EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA NEAR 31N78W TO N FL NEAR 29N81W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A STRONG 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 36N30W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. TRADEWINDS ARE GENERALLY 10-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...THE TWO COLD FRONTS WILL MERGE AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM 32N61W TO HISPANIOLA WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO