000 AXNT20 KNHC 152338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W AND 79W AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MON MORNING. THIS GALE WARNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N- 12.5N BETWEEN 74W-77W EARLY MON. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY MON AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W THEN ALONG 7N18W TO 2N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W TO 41W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OVER FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND TAMPA BAY CONTINUING ALONG 28N87W TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR TERREBONNE BAY. THIS FRONT IS WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THUS NO SHOWERS ARE INDICATED. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND TEXAS GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BRIDGING THE ABOVE FRONT WITH A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 25N87W. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE GULF TONIGHT. THE 1024 MB HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE DISSIPATING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY MON NIGHT AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE SW GULF TUE AND SE OF THE GULF WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT...NOW A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS TO OVER PUERTO RICO GIVING THE NE CARIBBEAN SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W- 70W. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF 15N BETWEEN 68W- 80W. THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY W OF 76W WHICH IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF NICARAGUA AND W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE NEXT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED AND WED NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AND COUPLED WITH THE NE TO E SURFACE FLOW COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA ALONG 28N74W TO FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE THEN CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR WHICH IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. DENSE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT E OF 80W AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH... PREVIOUSLY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO 25N62W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N64W TO OVER PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NE VENEZUELA ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO 30N40W IS CREATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-56W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGHS AND ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 32N30W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT N OF 29N...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND MON NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR W ATLC EARLY TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW