000 AXNT20 KNHC 150002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE EASTERN US COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHERN ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUNDAY. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N14W AND CONTINUES TO 00N20W TO 01S30W TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-06N BETWEEN 25W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N93W. 5 TO 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF. 10 TO 15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF SUNDAY MORNING WITH NO CONVECTION DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES NE HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-70W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER JAMAICA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PANAMA. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN IN THE PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR THE TOWN OF SAMANA. CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N60W TO 26N70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE SAME UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N46W TO 22N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 32N28W DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...THE STATIONARY FRONTS OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO