000 AXNT20 KNHC 091146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N13W TO 03N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N17W TO 01N32W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W AND 39W AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 42W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W SW TO 19N96W. THIS TROUGHING COINCIDES WITH WEAKER MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SE GULF WATERS AND SUPPORTS A SHALLOW 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N89W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-TOPPED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION SE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N85W. THE SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY STRETCHES TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 27N106W THAT SUPPORTS OVERALL DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH THE STRONGEST DRYING NOTED OVER THE SW GULF. THE STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS W OF 89W...AND MOST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE MOST OF THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGHING DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INFLUENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL E OF 82W WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N84W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE LOW CENTER TO 15N83W. LOW-TOPPED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 19N BETWEEN 77W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING INLAND AREAS OF CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILS OFF TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES N OF 15N E OF 74W. LOOKING AHEAD...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. ...HISPANIOLA... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND FROM 20N72W TO 20N60W AND BEYOND PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W AND AREAS NORTH OF THE ISLAND WITHIN THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WHILE AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS INTRODUCES A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W...INCLUDING MOST OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE BAHAMAS. WHILE STILL IN THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT STAGES...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE EAST- CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 32N46W THAT SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N48W TO 21N58W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD AND STATIONARY FRONTS S OF 24N. OTHERWISE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W AND A WEAKENING 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 22N43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN