000 AXNT20 KNHC 021143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W THIS MORNING THEN WILL PULSE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND TUE NIGHT INTO WED MONRING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST N OF 29N W OF 78W. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT E AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH TUE MORNING WHERE THE GALE WILL BE N OF 28.5N E OF FRONT TO 65W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING IN GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON FROM 21N-23.5N W OF 97W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/ EARLY TUE MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE W GULF MON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 6N15W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 18W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 02/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA ALONG 27N91W TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE S TEXAS AND SE LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM EXTREME SW FLORIDA TO SW MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN THIS EVENING CONTINUING S-SE THROUGH TUE AND BECOMING E TO W ALIGNED ALONG 22N. A NW/SE ORIENTED REMNANT TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF TUE WILL LIFT NE ON TUE NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 27N90W BY WED EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NW ACROSS COLOMBIA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TO OVER HISPANIOLA ALONG 19N70W TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W TO 16N69W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU NIGHT INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU MORNING. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY STALL E TO W THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ISLAND. A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF PUERTO RICO ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND COULD GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. LATE TUE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT THAT WILL BE N OF THE ISLAND THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 65W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N67W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N41W ALONG 25N47W 20N57W JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N56W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N44W TO 28N39W. A REMNANT 1018 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEAR 26N34W. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA WILL MOVE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY TUE AND CONTINUE E THROUGH WED AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY E TO W ALONG 24N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW