000 AXNT20 KNHC 290005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N33W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ON THE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER AND A 1026 MB HIGH OVER GEORGIA. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORT STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER. WINDS EAST OF 90W ARE FROM THE NE RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KT. WEST OF 90W...WINDS ARE FROM THE E-SE RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 KT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM ALABAMA SW TO CORPUS CHRISTI EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE NIGHT HOURS...WEAKENING AND EXITING THE BASIN SATURDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED ON NOVA SCOTIA AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH TAIL REACHING FROM ANDROS TO WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 30N60W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA SW TO 12N80W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S-SW OF HAITI. AN UPPER RIDGE E-NE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE MONA PASSAGE. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THU MORNING BUT SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH TAIL REACHING THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S-SW OF HAITI. AN UPPER RIDGE E-NE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE MONA PASSAGE. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THU MORNING BUT SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED ON NOVA SCOTIA AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH TAIL REACHING WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT AND A SECOND FRONT AHEAD OF IT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 30N60W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N AND WITHIN 175 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN WITH A WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N40W TO 21N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF ITS AXIS S OF 25N. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT DURING THU MORNING HOURS. THE TAIL OF THIS FRONT WILL BE NEARLY-STATIONARY ACROSS HISPANIOLA THU BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRI MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS