000 AXNT20 KNHC 241730 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE WEST. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 74W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 2N33W WHERE IT BRIEFLY BREAKS DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH...THEN CONTINUES FROM 2N35W TO 2N42W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N34W TO 2N34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER N MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE GULF. FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IS USHERING IN A COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WITH NW WINDS RANGING FROM 10 KT ALONG THE TX COAST...TO AROUND 25 KT JUST NW OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEAR 31N81W...ACROSS FL AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 27N82W TO NEAR CANCUN AT 21N87W AND THEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS FL AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W AND THEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SE WINDS TO 25 KT ARE SE OF THE TROUGH. W WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE GULF BASIN AND WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF ON SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE NW AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CANCUN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE TRADEWINDS SHIFT TO THE SW TO 10 TO 15 KT WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...THEN W AROUND 20 KT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...THEN NW AT 15 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OTHER ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDES SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM N COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA TO W CUBA AND OVER THE W ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO W CUBA TO HONDURAS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE ISLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS LOW TO 31N81W AND ACROSS FL NEAR 28N82W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N79W AND ACROSS FL NEAR 27N81W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. S TO SW WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. FARTHER EAST...A UPPER TROUGH ALONG 46W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO 32N44W TO 26W60W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N66W AND THEN TO A WARM FRONT TO 31N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 22N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MID ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 160 E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS N OF 23N. A STATIONARY 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 41N19W WHICH SUPPORTS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO 30N60W TO W CUBA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC FROM THE SE US ON MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO