000 AXNT20 KNHC 232344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 21N W OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 30N87W TO 18N94W. GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT N OF 29N W OF 76W IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 2N26W TO 3N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 23W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N OF 26N. A GALE IS OVER THE W GULF. SEE ABOVE. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT. 10-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS...WHILE BROAD RIDGING WITH SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO BELIZE AT 17N88W WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W CUBA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO BELIZE AT 17N88W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL E OF FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 70W. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT DUE TO MOIST TRADEWINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... PRE-FRONTAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS REACHED THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST N OF 29N W OF 80W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N55W TO 29N60W TO 27N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N48W TO 24N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N BETWEEN 42W-48W. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 38N23W. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 21N BETWEEN 12W-28W TO INCLUDE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N42W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE N OF 28N WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE COLD FRONT FROM 32N41W TO 23N49W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA