000 AXNT20 KNHC 220536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N25W 4N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 13W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A REMNANT...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N85W TO 26N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 29N95W TO ACROSS TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA N OF 24N W OF 92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE E AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OVER NE MEXICO WILL ENTER THE GULF EARLY THU THEN SHIFT NE AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MOBILE BAY EARLY FRI WITH A FRONT TRAILING ACROSS THE W GULF. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY SAT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF INTO SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 66W-73W...FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 76W-82W...AND FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 82W-87W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SAT AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S PORTION OF THE ISLAND INDUCED BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC WITH W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N58W INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N52W TO 31N59W. TO THE S IS A WEAKENING 1016 MB LOW NEAR 26N59W AND TO THE E IS A WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 29N50W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 21N61W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W GIVING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGING. ONE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA TO 28N71W AND A SECOND BROADER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA THU MORNING REACHING FROM 31N70W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE SHIFTING E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH FRI. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA EARLY SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW