000 AXNT20 KNHC 210550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N31W 2N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-26W...WITHIN 120 NM S AND 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N87W ALONG 25N86W TO THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N E OF 88W TO OVER N FLORIDA AND FROM 24N-27N E OF 83W TO OVER S FLORIDA. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 24N92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY...POSSIBLY DENSE FOG WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM JUST N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO TO VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF BY WED NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF ON THU WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NEAR 29N88W TO 25N95W TO 21N98W FRI MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR 8N60W ALONG 20N60W THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N43W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-84W TO OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S PORTION OF HAITI INDUCED BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N67W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 33N76W TO 26N70W WHICH IS INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N63W TO TO BEYOND 32N61W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 62W-72W. A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEAR 25N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N48W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N51W TO 23N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS FROM 20N56W TO 15N57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC LATE TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 32N72W TO 28N75W TO 28N81W LATE WED NIGHT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ON FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW