000 AXNT20 KNHC 141801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF GUINEA AND THEN INTO THE ATLC TO 03N12W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 02N30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 14W AND 24W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS INTO THE GULF. THE UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH INFLOW OF SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 24N84W TO 23N93W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL SITES AND OFFSHORE PLATFORMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FOG AND HAZE IN THE N-NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 89W. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO COASTAL WATERS PUSHES THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE SE BASIN AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER TODAY. WITH NO SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND VANISH TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES N- NE WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT INCREASING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FLOW IS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...DIMINISHING TO A GENTLE BREEZE BY THU MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC WEAKEN AND MOVES N-NE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED/ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS OVER TRINIDAD-TOBAGO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT WILL PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL INTERACT WITH DAYTIME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW LIGHT AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN EXPOSURES AS WELL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY TONIGHT...ALLOWING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 32N70W TO 27N77W ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 24N84W. A DIFFLUENT WIND PATTERN ALOFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE N-NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 30N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 31N38W WHICH WILL STALL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO DRIFT N-NE. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR