000 AXNT20 KNHC 051126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 15 TO 19 FT. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT S OF 21N W OF 95W. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W AND CONTINUES TO 04N13W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N13W TO 03N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM N AND 100 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N88W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. 15-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE SE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE GULF FROM 27N81W TO 25N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE TO S FL TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SHOWERS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND N COLOMBIA. THIS IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. E TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. E TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED FAST MOVING SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 75W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N44W. A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE N BAHAMAS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N32W TO 28N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N22W TO 17N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE AXIS INCLUDING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WHICH IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO