000 AXNT20 KNHC 011204 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 77W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 14 FEET TO 20 FEET EVENTUALLY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 7N17W AND 5N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N23W TO 4N30W AND 1N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 4N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NORTHWESTWARD...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N80W AT THE COAST OF SOUTH- EASTERN FLORIDA...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N95W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO A DEEP SOUTH TEXAS COASTAL 1023 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM THE 1023 MB LOW CENTER TO 27N96W. A COLD FRONT...THAT IS PART OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS EVENT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS...IS ALONG 23N96W 21N90W...INTO MEXICO NEAR 24N101W... CURVING TO 28N103W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N103W TO 29N106W AND 31N108W IN NORTHERN MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...TO 22N98W IN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE GALE-FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...VIRTUALLY ALL THE ICAO PLATFORM SITES...EXCEPT FOR KGRY AND WITH TEMPORARILY CLEARING SKIES IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND KEHC WITH FAIR SKIES FOR SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THEN PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL SECTIONS FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ALSO IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. CLEARING SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND FROM BROOKSVILLE SOUTHWARD TO NAPLES. CLEARING SKIES ARE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 4N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NORTHWESTWARD...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO THE MONA PASSAGE. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.07 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 5N78W BEYOND 5N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND 700 MB EASTERLY WIND FLOW ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 4N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NORTHWESTWARD...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO THE MONA PASSAGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROUGH. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A RIDGE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND IT WILL END UP IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N72W IN 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CANARY ISLAND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N26W AND 20N38W... TO A 15N48W CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUYANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W...AND ELSEWHERE 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N53W TO 29N60W 28N65W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 28N65W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND TO FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W...EVENTUALLY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES FOR BERMUDA IS 0.04. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N57W BEYOND 33N49W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 28N41W AND 24N57W... TO THE MIDDLE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 29N60W 28N65W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND TO 25N80W...EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 14N TO 31N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT