000 AXNT20 KNHC 312354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO RESUME OVERNIGHT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-78W AND CONTINUING TO THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N11W 7N17W TO 5N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W 6N34W TO 2N45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC AND OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE IS A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND FORT MYERS CONTINUING ALONG 26N87W TO 23N93W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 21N95W TO 19N95W. A STRONG 1039 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH AN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING S OVER THE GULF. A LOW LEVEL BAND OF COLD AIR IS MOVING S OVER THE FAR W GULF COMPLIMENTS OF THE STRONG HIGH AND CAN BEEN SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF N AND W OF THE FRONT WITH DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG OR HAZE BEING REPORTED OVER THE W GULF WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO TUXPAN MEXICO. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR 24N97W THU THEN MOVE N THU NIGHT AND FRI DRAGGING A WARM FRONT E FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THEN MOVE N OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WIDENING OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SURFACE FLOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THEN PULSE AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N W OF 50W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N57W TO 27N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A WEAK 1020 MB LOW ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR WEST PALM BEACH AND CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO 30N W OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N68W TO 23N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N34W. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. A WEAK N/S TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA ON THU THEN DRIFT E THU NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON FRI AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 30N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW