000 AXNT20 KNHC 311757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXPECT GALE FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 78W. THE GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W AND EXTENDS TO 7N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 5N30W TO TO 3N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 16W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S FL AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W AND THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W GULF WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...THEN MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT OFF THE TX COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BASIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE WHICH SUPPORTS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE EASTERN BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT ARE NEAR GALE FORCE S OF 15N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. TRADE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN ON THURSDAY. HISPANIOLA... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 27N76W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO S FL NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...INCLUDING THE N BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N67W TO 22N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N36W COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF 10N WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT NEAR 28N65W AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO