000 AXNT20 KNHC 310003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND EXTENDS TO 07N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N30W TO 01N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 16W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1014 MB LOW OVER THE W ATLC THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N82W TO 24N89W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. NE-E FLOW COVERS THE BASIN...RANGING FROM 5-10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FROM 15-25 KT N OF IT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER- LEVELS HINDER DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN...HOWEVER SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND ITS VICINITY ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF IT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT WED MORNING PREVAILING THROUGH THURSDAY AND DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY. NO MAJOR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...THUS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. AT THE LOWER-LEVELS...SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NEAR TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY. HISPANIOLA... STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES FOR A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER HISPANIOLA THROUGH THU MORNING. RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 34N67W TO 30N74W TO EASTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE SE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N70W TO COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF ITS AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 28N40W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN... AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM A 1022 MB LOW NEAR 30N20W TO 23N25W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR