000
AXNT20 KNHC 301733
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W AND 
EXTENDS TO 7N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 5N25W TO 
TO 2N41W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 7N 
BETWEEN 16W AND 38W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE 
GULF NEAR 29N83 TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W AND THEN ACROSS 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. NE WINDS 
MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. E TO SE WINDS OF 
5 TO 10 KT ARE SE OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE 
PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE E GULF AND FL PENINSULA WILL 
BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVE SE TO NEAR 26N83W 
WITH SHOWERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH SHOWERS.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER PANAMA 
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE WHICH SUPPORTS 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...15 
TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN EXCEPT 
25 KT WINDS N OF COLOMBIA TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. TRADE 
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
IN THE TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO 
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH THURSDAY. 
 
HISPANIOLA...                   

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...NEAR THE SURFACE 
TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLAND AND HAITI 
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 31N79W TO THE N FL COAST NEAR 29N81W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND 
CAICOS...EXTENDING FROM 25N70W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 46W 
AND 51W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N41W AND IS 
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 16N. 
FARTHER EAST...A 1024MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N23W. THIS LOW 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT TO 25N25W TO 22N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 50 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE 
STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVE SE TO 
CENTRAL FL TO 31N75W WITH SHOWERS. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO