000 AXNT20 KNHC 301202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA...NOT REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W...CURVING TO 7N17W 4N25W 2N34W AND 1N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF 3N17W 4N25W 4N30W 3N33W 2N36W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 27N23W 25N27W AND 23N34W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM 23N34W TO 21N44W AND 19N47W...CONTINUING AS A TROUGH FROM 19N47W TO A CUT- OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N51W...TO 6N52W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N24W 6N52W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SHALLOW AND SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 31N81W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF FLORIDA...TO 28N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N90W... CURVING TO 23N94W AND 18N96W IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...TO 24N88W... AND 21N89W AT THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH AN UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...ALONG THE COASTS/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO...TO 20N97W IN MEXICO...INTO THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...VIRTUALLY ALL THE ICAO PLATFORM SITES...EXCEPT FOR KEIR AND KGHB WITH TEMPORARILY CLEARING SKIES...AND KEHC WITH FAIR SKIES FOR SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO PERRY IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...AND IN MARIANNA FLORIDA. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...TO PUNTA GORDA AND FORT MYERS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON TO THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN INVERTED MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 70W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD...FROM 14N60W 15N70W 16N80W 16N86W NORTHWARD...AND INLAND FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS...INTO GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.21 IN CURACAO... AND 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N80W... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS FROM TRADEWIND FLOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N86W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 24N69W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 24N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL START FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IT WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND BE ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...TO EL SALVADOR...AND THEN NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 23N65W...AND IT EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO THE AREA OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM HISPANIOLA TO A LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS-TO-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-TO JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 27N23W 25N27W AND 23N34W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM 23N34W TO 21N44W AND 19N47W...CONTINUING AS A TROUGH FROM 19N47W TO A CUT- OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N51W...TO 6N52W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N24W 6N52W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 28N24W AND 23N30W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CURVES FROM 23N30W TO 21N36W AND 20N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 17W AND 24W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W 26N28W 26N40W 23N56W BEYOND 32N59W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN VAPOR IMAGERY ELSEWHERE...AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE...TO THE WEST OF THE 32N24W-6N52W TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 24N69W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 24N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N27W TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N45W...TO 28N61W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ON TOP OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT