000 AXNT20 KNHC 300558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N15W TO 6N20W 3N30W 2N40W 3N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 32W AND 39W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 26N26W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM 26N26W TO 23N40W AND 20N47W... CONTINUING AS A TROUGH FROM 20N47W TO A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N51W...TO 5N51W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N26W 5N50W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SHALLOW AND SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...TO 26N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 26N88W AND IT CONTINUES TO 23N93W...AND TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W 23N90W...AND 21N89W AT THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...ALONG THE COASTS/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO...TO 19N96W IN MEXICO...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...VIRTUALLY ALL THE ICAO PLATFORM SITES...EXCEPT FOR KBBF AND KMDJ AND KMIS AND KDLP WITH TEMPORARILY CLEARING SKIES...AND KEHC WITH FAIR SKIES FOR SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO PERRY IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...TO PUNTA GORDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 28N30W TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N44W...TO 28N62W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND THE ABACO ISLANDS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO 20N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD...FROM 14N60W 15N67W 16N74W 16N80W 15N84W NORTHWARD...AND INLAND FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS...INTO GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.21 IN CURACAO... AND 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS FROM TRADEWIND FLOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N86W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL START FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IT WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND BE ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...TO EL SALVADOR...AND THEN NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 23N65W...AND IT EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO THE AREA OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM HISPANIOLA TO A LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS-TO-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-TO JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 26N26W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM 26N26W TO 23N40W AND 20N47W... CONTINUING AS A TROUGH FROM 20N47W TO A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N51W...TO 5N51W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 15N51W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 60W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N26W 5N50W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 27N26W 23N30W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 23N30W TO 21N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 19W AND 26W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE 32N26W- TO-5N50W TROUGH. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W 27N29W 26N44W 23N55W BEYOND 32N65W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN VAPOR IMAGERY ELSEWHERE...AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE...TO THE WEST OF THE 32N26W-5N50W TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 24N69W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 28N30W TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N44W...TO 28N62W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND THE ABACO ISLANDS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO 20N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ON TOP OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT