000
AXNT20 KNHC 291714
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST MON DEC 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N10W AND 
EXTENDS TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N30W TO 
TO 1N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 
16W AND 43W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO THE 
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE FRONT. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 
15 KT ARE SE OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE NW 
OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
FRONT WILL MOVE SE TO CENTRAL FL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT 
WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND THEN WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. SHOWERS 
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGH TUESDAY. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...   

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS 
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE THAT IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT 
COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 70W TO 77W. TRADE WINDS OF 15 
TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE IN THE 
LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND JAMAICA. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE 
BASIN. 
 
HISPANIOLA...                   

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING 
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND...WITH FAIR WEATHER 
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL 
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE 
ISLAND. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N54W RESIDES UNDER 
A BROAD RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC S 
OF 31N. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE W ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC TO 51W. AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 33W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N26W TO 24N35W TO 21N44W WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 19N51W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75NM SE OF THE 
COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 75NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY 
FRONT. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N48W WHICH SUPPORTS 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 41W 
AND 49W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE 
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE E ATLANTIC WHILE THE 
STATIONARY FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE FL/GA COAST WITH SHOWERS. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO