000 AXNT20 KNHC 261752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE CARIBBEAN WERE DECREASING BELOW GALE FORCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N11W AND EXTENDS TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N30W TO 4N40W TO 6N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS PRODUCING E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC AND FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W OVER THE GULF TO NEAR 23N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF BY SATURDAY EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... TRADEWINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N77W WHICH DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH SUBSIDENCE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH TRADE WINDS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG AND N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDER E TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND TODAY. FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS S TO 31N62W TO 27N75W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 24N80W AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N70W. FARTHER EAST...A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 33N43W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SE OF THE LOW TO 31N41W AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 23N43W. THESE SURFACE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 29N. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE FROM 18N38W TO 30N30W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO NEAR 30N45W TO 22N50W. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO